Europe's Mutually Assured Decline -- Naisbitt

As I mentioned in previous post, I'm working through John Naisbitt's Mind Set! (2006) and his predictions of future trends that shape our world. His past books Megatrends (1982) and Megatrends 2000 (1990) were amazingly accurate in describing the world in which we now live. One chapter is dedicated to Europe (or more precisely the European Union). And since I live and minister in Europe, I paid close attention to Naisbitt's prognosis, which is best summed up in the first paragraph of that chapter.

The "Statue of Europe" has two hearts and 25 mindsets. The 25 country mindsets are stirring a mixture with ingredients that do not blend: tradition, ambition, welfare, and economic leadership. Her two hearts beat in different rhythm, one for economic supremacy and one for social welfare. Proud and ambitious, each one wants to be right. But to reach either goal, they have to compromise, and neither side is willing to do so. My experiences make me believe that Europe is much more likely to become a history theme park for well-off Americans and Asians than the world's most economically dynamic region as it has proclaimed it wants to be. Economically, Europe is on the past of Mutually Assured Decline.

The hurdles for economic growth in the Europe are:

• High taxes and big governments
• Less innovation
• Slow productivity growth
• Restrictive labor laws
• Declining export market share and the raising protectionism.
  

What are the implications for the church? If Naisbitt's prognosis is true, will the economic hardships in Europe lead its inhabitants to look to God? Will the past promises of humanism, of which Europe is so proud, be recognized as weak and empty?

Quotes from John Naisbitt's Mind Set!

GLOBALIZATION
Globalization is a bottom-up phenomenon with all actions initiated by milions of individuals, the sum total of which is "globalization." No one is in charge, and no one can anticipate what the sum of all the individual initiatives will be before the result manifest. A global economy can only be the result of "spontaneous order."
Page: 164

...countries don't create economies. It is entrepreneurs and companies that create and revitalize economies. The role of the governments should be to create a nourishing environment for entrepreneurs and companies to flourish, not to get in the way of economic development.
Page: 159

The economic borderlines of our world will not be drawn between countries, but around Economic Domains. Along the twin paths of globalization and decentralization, the economic pieces of the future are being assembled in a new way. Not what is produced by a country or in a country will be of importance, but the production within global Economic Domains, measured as Gross Domain Products. The global market demands a global sharing of talent. The consequence is Mass Customization of Talent and education as the number one economic priority for all countries
Page: 157

As often as I listen to the worries about China eating the jobs of the West, I hear the concern about the influence of the American way of life in the East. The question is: "Does globalization mean Americanization?" My short answer is no. In measuring globalization, we can count telephone calls, currency flows, trade sums, and so on, but the spread of culture and ideas cannot be so easily measured. Embedded in the present is the unrecognized paradox that culturally, America itself is changing more dramatically than America is changing the world. It is the world that is changing the world. Immigration is reshaping America more profoundly than America's influence around the world. Page: 179

EXPECTATIONS ALWAYS TRAVEL AT HIGHER SPEEDS
A brief look into history reminds us of the time lines of the past. My lifelong experience has been that things we expect to happen always happen more slowly. With inventions, we continually underestimate the time span required from idea to their full realization. The new fields of biotechnology and nanotechnology will be evolving for all the years left in the twenty-first century.

It is the surprises that overwhelm us, such as AIDS and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. As with the human species and other manifestations of nature, almost all change is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Things just take time--almost always more time than we expect.
Page: 76

THE DILEMMA OF THE NONEXPERT
Who and what are we to believe? Where to begin? Read a significant number of the 963 books on global warming listed on Amazon.com, and, to keep in the balance, read from the 1,054 books (July 2006) on global cooling and the coming ice age?

Amid all the conflicting claims and advice, it is sometimes difficult to know whom to believe about the environment, I cannot stop my life the next 2 to 10 years to become an expert on the environment or sustainability. Nor can any of us. I can only use my experience and best judgment.

The debate is exacerbated by the superior tone of those who are so sure about global warming. Global warming has become a religion, and those who don't buy into its gloom and doom scenarios are infidels who must be banished from any public forum.

I believe the environment must be protected and that regulations is often necessary. No matter who is right about the environment and sustainability, I support attending to the environment because the remedies are so attractive. I want a clean air and clean water for everybody. I vote for nature. But exaggerating problems without any real idea of the score of the game distorts society's priorities and makes it hard for citizens and leaders to make the best decisions.Page: 27-28

Several years ago when lecturing in Tokyo, I was talking about how immigration was constantly replenishing America's talent pool and later noted that it wasn't by chance that the United States had more than 300 Nobel Prize winners and Japan only had four. A guy in the second row said, "Yeah, but most of those Nobel winners moved to the U.S. from other countries." "Thanks," I answered, "for making my point." Page: 25

HAVING TO BE RIGHT SHACKLES YOUR MIND.
People are culturally conditioned to have to be right. The parents are right, the teacher is right, the boss is right. Who is right overrules what is right. Couples have huge quarrels about considerations that are forgotten as the struggle for who is right rages on.

Political parties have institutionalized having to be right. How often has a political party welcomed the position of the other side? Imagine if all the energy that goes into trying to prove the other side wrong were channeled into actually thinking about what was best for whatever the dispute is about. Worse, having to be right becomes a barrier to learning and understanding. It keeps you away from growing, for there is no growth without changing, correcting, and questioning yourself.

If you have to be right, you put yourself in a hedged lane, but once you experience the power of not having to be right, you will feel like you are walking across open fields, the perspective wide and your feet free to take any turn. Page: 39

In a world that is constantly changing, there is no one subject or set of subjects that will serve you for the foreseeable future, let alone for the rest of your life. The most important skill to acquire now is learning how to learn.

Vision Casting and John Naisbitt

One of joys of traveling is that it gives me time to read. Currently I'm working through John Nasibitt's latest, "Mind Set". About twenty years ago, I first came across his book Megatrends and a few years later his second book Megatrends 2000. The guy has simply been dead on in predicting what the future will look like...so I couldn't resist picking up his latest.

In Part One, Naisbitt begins by explaining 11 mindsets that have helped him understand the future. These are great tools not only for forecasting trends, but also for leaders who want to bring about change.

1. While many things change, most things remain constant

The news and media compete against each other for our attention by projecting the image that everything is changing. However, life goes on for the majority of people and things are pretty constant. Naisbitt counters by encouraging us to “distinguish between real and apparent change, basic shifts and fads, remembering that in the history of the world, most things remain constant."

2. The future is embedded in the present

Looking back it is easy to see how historical events shaped the future. The future is rooted in the present

3. Focus on the score of the game

Use sports as the model for determining the outcome of business and political decisions. When a game is over, the score is the objective fianl outcome and the winner is identified. In many areas of life, people will try to distort the outcome to make them look favorable. Again, filter out the rhetoric and determine the final score of the game.

4. Understand how powerful it is not to have to be right

This frees us to be open to new ideas and opportunities. If you have to be right, you put yourself in a hedged lane, but once you experience the power of not having to be right, you will feel like you are walking across open fields, the perspective wide and your feet free to take any turn.

5. See the future as a picture puzzle

Piecing together these mindset ideas will help you better identify future trends.

6. Don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t know you’re in it

If your great idea is so far out there that it is impossible for people to understand, they will not buy into your ideas. Keep your ideas close enough to the present that people can easily make the jump.

7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real

It is the leader's responsiblity to clearly communicate the benefits of change. Once the audience internalizes these concepts, they’ll drop their defenses and accept the new ideas.

8. Things that we expect to happen always happen more slowly

Our expectations always seem to outpace the implementation timeline of those great ideas. Naisbitt states: “almost all change is evolutionary, not revolutionary

9. You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities

Trying to solve the problem restricts one's ability to think in the bigger picture. Don't get stuck fixing the problems of the past instead of seeking the opportunities of tomorrow.

10. Don’t add unless you can subtract

Determine what is really important when new ideas arise. Always adding to the options will only cause the other options to lose is attention and quality. Failure to keep the proper balance will lead to under-performance in all areas.

11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology

New technologies should enable us. When something new is introduced, we should ask ourselves how things will improve or get worse. “What new opportunities does it present?