Europe's Mutually Assured Decline -- Naisbitt

As I mentioned in previous post, I'm working through John Naisbitt's Mind Set! (2006) and his predictions of future trends that shape our world. His past books Megatrends (1982) and Megatrends 2000 (1990) were amazingly accurate in describing the world in which we now live. One chapter is dedicated to Europe (or more precisely the European Union). And since I live and minister in Europe, I paid close attention to Naisbitt's prognosis, which is best summed up in the first paragraph of that chapter.

The "Statue of Europe" has two hearts and 25 mindsets. The 25 country mindsets are stirring a mixture with ingredients that do not blend: tradition, ambition, welfare, and economic leadership. Her two hearts beat in different rhythm, one for economic supremacy and one for social welfare. Proud and ambitious, each one wants to be right. But to reach either goal, they have to compromise, and neither side is willing to do so. My experiences make me believe that Europe is much more likely to become a history theme park for well-off Americans and Asians than the world's most economically dynamic region as it has proclaimed it wants to be. Economically, Europe is on the past of Mutually Assured Decline.

The hurdles for economic growth in the Europe are:

• High taxes and big governments
• Less innovation
• Slow productivity growth
• Restrictive labor laws
• Declining export market share and the raising protectionism.
  

What are the implications for the church? If Naisbitt's prognosis is true, will the economic hardships in Europe lead its inhabitants to look to God? Will the past promises of humanism, of which Europe is so proud, be recognized as weak and empty?

Today, We Choose to Follow You

One of our favorite choruses at our home church in Germany, Treffpunkt C, is a song by Brian Doerksen, music pastor of The Bridge in Abbotsford, BC. Today is based on Joshua 24:15. Listen and be blessed.

Colin & Kevin Skateboarding

Colin and Kevin are big skateboarding fans. Visiting Indiana, they have found some pretty school skate parks. The video first shows them in Rudersberg, Germany then followed by the parks in La Porte and Portage, Indiana.

Even if the still picture if blank, there really is a video. Go ahead and click on the icon below.

Quotes from John Naisbitt's Mind Set!

GLOBALIZATION
Globalization is a bottom-up phenomenon with all actions initiated by milions of individuals, the sum total of which is "globalization." No one is in charge, and no one can anticipate what the sum of all the individual initiatives will be before the result manifest. A global economy can only be the result of "spontaneous order."
Page: 164

...countries don't create economies. It is entrepreneurs and companies that create and revitalize economies. The role of the governments should be to create a nourishing environment for entrepreneurs and companies to flourish, not to get in the way of economic development.
Page: 159

The economic borderlines of our world will not be drawn between countries, but around Economic Domains. Along the twin paths of globalization and decentralization, the economic pieces of the future are being assembled in a new way. Not what is produced by a country or in a country will be of importance, but the production within global Economic Domains, measured as Gross Domain Products. The global market demands a global sharing of talent. The consequence is Mass Customization of Talent and education as the number one economic priority for all countries
Page: 157

As often as I listen to the worries about China eating the jobs of the West, I hear the concern about the influence of the American way of life in the East. The question is: "Does globalization mean Americanization?" My short answer is no. In measuring globalization, we can count telephone calls, currency flows, trade sums, and so on, but the spread of culture and ideas cannot be so easily measured. Embedded in the present is the unrecognized paradox that culturally, America itself is changing more dramatically than America is changing the world. It is the world that is changing the world. Immigration is reshaping America more profoundly than America's influence around the world. Page: 179

EXPECTATIONS ALWAYS TRAVEL AT HIGHER SPEEDS
A brief look into history reminds us of the time lines of the past. My lifelong experience has been that things we expect to happen always happen more slowly. With inventions, we continually underestimate the time span required from idea to their full realization. The new fields of biotechnology and nanotechnology will be evolving for all the years left in the twenty-first century.

It is the surprises that overwhelm us, such as AIDS and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. As with the human species and other manifestations of nature, almost all change is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Things just take time--almost always more time than we expect.
Page: 76

THE DILEMMA OF THE NONEXPERT
Who and what are we to believe? Where to begin? Read a significant number of the 963 books on global warming listed on Amazon.com, and, to keep in the balance, read from the 1,054 books (July 2006) on global cooling and the coming ice age?

Amid all the conflicting claims and advice, it is sometimes difficult to know whom to believe about the environment, I cannot stop my life the next 2 to 10 years to become an expert on the environment or sustainability. Nor can any of us. I can only use my experience and best judgment.

The debate is exacerbated by the superior tone of those who are so sure about global warming. Global warming has become a religion, and those who don't buy into its gloom and doom scenarios are infidels who must be banished from any public forum.

I believe the environment must be protected and that regulations is often necessary. No matter who is right about the environment and sustainability, I support attending to the environment because the remedies are so attractive. I want a clean air and clean water for everybody. I vote for nature. But exaggerating problems without any real idea of the score of the game distorts society's priorities and makes it hard for citizens and leaders to make the best decisions.Page: 27-28

Several years ago when lecturing in Tokyo, I was talking about how immigration was constantly replenishing America's talent pool and later noted that it wasn't by chance that the United States had more than 300 Nobel Prize winners and Japan only had four. A guy in the second row said, "Yeah, but most of those Nobel winners moved to the U.S. from other countries." "Thanks," I answered, "for making my point." Page: 25

HAVING TO BE RIGHT SHACKLES YOUR MIND.
People are culturally conditioned to have to be right. The parents are right, the teacher is right, the boss is right. Who is right overrules what is right. Couples have huge quarrels about considerations that are forgotten as the struggle for who is right rages on.

Political parties have institutionalized having to be right. How often has a political party welcomed the position of the other side? Imagine if all the energy that goes into trying to prove the other side wrong were channeled into actually thinking about what was best for whatever the dispute is about. Worse, having to be right becomes a barrier to learning and understanding. It keeps you away from growing, for there is no growth without changing, correcting, and questioning yourself.

If you have to be right, you put yourself in a hedged lane, but once you experience the power of not having to be right, you will feel like you are walking across open fields, the perspective wide and your feet free to take any turn. Page: 39

In a world that is constantly changing, there is no one subject or set of subjects that will serve you for the foreseeable future, let alone for the rest of your life. The most important skill to acquire now is learning how to learn.

Vision Casting and John Naisbitt

One of joys of traveling is that it gives me time to read. Currently I'm working through John Nasibitt's latest, "Mind Set". About twenty years ago, I first came across his book Megatrends and a few years later his second book Megatrends 2000. The guy has simply been dead on in predicting what the future will look like...so I couldn't resist picking up his latest.

In Part One, Naisbitt begins by explaining 11 mindsets that have helped him understand the future. These are great tools not only for forecasting trends, but also for leaders who want to bring about change.

1. While many things change, most things remain constant

The news and media compete against each other for our attention by projecting the image that everything is changing. However, life goes on for the majority of people and things are pretty constant. Naisbitt counters by encouraging us to “distinguish between real and apparent change, basic shifts and fads, remembering that in the history of the world, most things remain constant."

2. The future is embedded in the present

Looking back it is easy to see how historical events shaped the future. The future is rooted in the present

3. Focus on the score of the game

Use sports as the model for determining the outcome of business and political decisions. When a game is over, the score is the objective fianl outcome and the winner is identified. In many areas of life, people will try to distort the outcome to make them look favorable. Again, filter out the rhetoric and determine the final score of the game.

4. Understand how powerful it is not to have to be right

This frees us to be open to new ideas and opportunities. If you have to be right, you put yourself in a hedged lane, but once you experience the power of not having to be right, you will feel like you are walking across open fields, the perspective wide and your feet free to take any turn.

5. See the future as a picture puzzle

Piecing together these mindset ideas will help you better identify future trends.

6. Don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t know you’re in it

If your great idea is so far out there that it is impossible for people to understand, they will not buy into your ideas. Keep your ideas close enough to the present that people can easily make the jump.

7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real

It is the leader's responsiblity to clearly communicate the benefits of change. Once the audience internalizes these concepts, they’ll drop their defenses and accept the new ideas.

8. Things that we expect to happen always happen more slowly

Our expectations always seem to outpace the implementation timeline of those great ideas. Naisbitt states: “almost all change is evolutionary, not revolutionary

9. You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities

Trying to solve the problem restricts one's ability to think in the bigger picture. Don't get stuck fixing the problems of the past instead of seeking the opportunities of tomorrow.

10. Don’t add unless you can subtract

Determine what is really important when new ideas arise. Always adding to the options will only cause the other options to lose is attention and quality. Failure to keep the proper balance will lead to under-performance in all areas.

11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology

New technologies should enable us. When something new is introduced, we should ask ourselves how things will improve or get worse. “What new opportunities does it present?

Great News from Moscow

Today Mrs. Tatiana Sergeevna from the Sanitary Department came to inspect the Seminary. As we wrote last week, she previously has spoken very antagonistically with Provost Ilya Okhotnikov. “I remember you (from the last time). I don’t like you…. Why are you ruining our young people? You’re not Russian Orthodox!” Nonetheless, Ilya was able to convince her to come and inspect our building. We need a certificate from her department in order to continue operations at the school in Moscow.

A note for clarification: Many Russians claim to be “Orthodox” in faith, but have tremendous ignorance about the essentials of the faith. For them being “Russian Orthodox” is purely a matter of cultural identity, not of an active faith system in Jesus Christ. Subsequently, many Russians simply view Evangelicals and Pentecostals as an American phenomenon that is corrupting Russian culture. This is sometimes grouped with some not-so-positive influences from the West (e.g., Hollywood, MTV and the pop music culture, etc.).

As Tatiana came to the school, Ilya welcomed her with at the door and noticed a change in her demeanor. Today she was friendly and very accommodating. Obviously, she had a change of attitude about the seminary and approached today’s business with an open mind.

She toured various sections of the seminary, pointed out only one minor issue that needed to be corrected (too many computers in the lab). The classrooms, offices, and the library were all approved without a problem – thus all of the rooms used for “educational purposes” are now certified.

We are now breathing a big sigh of relief. Thank you for your prayers on our behalf!

However, we still need your prayers for the following issues…

• We still do not have the certificate in our hands. Ilya was told that we will receive the certificate, which is needed for the licensing process with the Department of Education, by September 11.
• Tatiana Sergeevna did not certify the dormitory and cafeteria – but these rooms may need certification in the future. She indicated that these certifications are a totally different ballgame. But these rooms are not necessary for “educational” activities.

And perhaps the biggest answer to prayer? Get this….

Because Tatiana Sergeevna was late for her next appointment, she asked Ilya to drive back to her office. (She had taken the subway to the school.). Ilya gladly complied and an interesting and engaging conversation took place in the car that eventually focused on the faith. A friend of hers had converted to the Adventist movement and Tatiana had several questions. Ilya took advantage of the moment and shared with her about his faith. As Ilya told me,

We talked about Christ Jesus, about the way of salvation, about his death and resurrection, and about common things Russian Orthodoxy and Evangelicals underline: i.e. His Resurrected life and 2nd coming. Wonderful, just wonderful! Glory to God! Hallelujah! Praise Him!

Last week, she was antagonistic against evangelicals. Today she was openly engaged in a conversation about the faith. Such a change in her disposition can only come through the Holy Spirit!

Thank you for your prayers. And please keep ETSM in your prayers in the next couple of weeks. We must continue to deal with various government agencies as part of the licensing process.

Urgent Prayer Request from Moscow

As is the case with any school, ETSM must periodically deal with various government agencies in the licensing process of the seminary with the appropriate federal offices. We must get periodic approvals from various departments (e.g., health department, fire department, etc.) in order to keep our seminary open.

This coming Tuesday, August 21, ETSM will have a visit from the sanitation department. (Actually, the visit will take place during Monday evening in the USA time zones.). The visit will be led by Mrs. Tatiana Sergeevna, who just last week began a conversation with our Provost Ilya Okhotnikov with the following words, “I remember you. I still don’t like you (from the last visit)…Why are you poising our young people? You are not Russian Orthodox!” Although Ilya did his best to disarm the situation, it still set the tone for the remainder of the conversation.

Ilya negotiated further with her. She agreed to visit the seminary on August 21, Tuesday for an inspection. As it turns out, she has enough clout in her department and can say either “I close your building down” or “I will certify your building.”

So we at ETSM request for your prayers and those of your churches and prayer groups. Please pray for Tatiana Sergeevna. May God turn her heart toward us so that she will not do something against us, but rather do all the paper work the way we need for the licensing process.

Reading Lencioni

When we travel as a family and Claudia does her share of the driving on the Interstate, I usually pass the time reading. This week I have one of Patrick Lencioni's books, Silos, Politics, and Turf Wars. Lencioni is a consultant for corporations and non-profit organizations. He has also been a key speaker at some of Willow Creek Leadership Summits.

In Silos, Lencioni has written a very good fable that depicts the typical "silos" or turf wars that take place in any organization. Using several different case scenarios, Lencioni does a great job in describing the subtleties of turf wars and places the blame square at the top of the organization. (The ground troops are simply doing their jobs as described for them by their bosses.)

The answer to the turf war, according to Lencioni, is a thematic goal. This is not to be confuse with a vision statement or a BHAG (big fat hairy goal), as Porras and Collins describe. But it is more than strategic goals and objectives. I must admit, this was a new concept for me and I'm not quite sure of the concept even after reading Lencioni's concept.

Lencioni clearly states that a thematic goal does not exclude the need to develop a good, functioning executive team (cf. Dysfunctions of Teams). Indeed, good executive teams are a priority for Lencioni. But contends that even well functioning teams with good personal relationships will sometimes have organizational/structural weaknesses that allow "silos" or turf wars to develop.

Overall, Lencioni has written a very readable book that clearly describes the problem of politics among divisions in an organization. But the concept of a "thematic goal" (as opposed to organizational vision) is still a bit vague to me -- but he's probably on to something. I don't think this book is as good as his Dysfunctions of Teams, but it is still a good read, has great application for various organizations including many churches and ministries.

Week of Family Reunions, Speaking Engagements

Our entire family has been on the road quite a bit since our arrival in the Indiana 10 days ago. Over the weekends we try to visit various churches. This past Sunday we were in Lincoln and Decautor, Illinois. We drove back to my parents in NW Indiana, only to leave on Wednesday for Cleveland, TN.

In Cleveland we met with some of my cousins (on the Rosson side). Yesterday we drove to Statesville, NC where there is a family reunion with my mother's family. So... we've been on the road quite a bit... averaging 7 hours per day of travel.

This Sunday I will speak twice here in North Carolina -- South Lenoir and Statesville (Landmark) and share what God is doing in Central and Eastern Europe (e.g., Germany, Russia, and all points in between).

How do we keep the kids happy while spending so much time on the road? DVDs! That and the comfort of seven little words: "It will all come out in therapy."

News / Prayer Request from Moscow

This coming month, September 2007, our seminary in Moscow will apply for the license "to conduct educational activity." Currently the seminary is registered as a religious organization and the Russian law provides for clear separation of church and state. Previously we were of the opinion that such a license was optional. However, it has become evident that we must now apply for a license.

Our Rector (Provost) Ilya Okhotnikov is working diligently on the licensing process. He hopes to have all of our paperwork and applications finished by the beginning of September. Ilya writes,

I ask you keep me and the rest of the Seminary administration in prayer for wisdom and His guidance, so that God would grant favor in the eyes of the governmental offices.... In need you to include is the prayer for those people who will actually come on campus of the Seminary to inspect us and search, to make sure we have enough resources “to conduct Educational Activity”. Especially Mr. Gruzkov, the Head of the Office of Licensing at the Federal Services – he will preside over the Inspection Committee.

The licensing process is very complicated, necessitating the clearance and approval from various governmental agencies (e.g., fire department, sanitation department, department of registration services, etc.). It will also involve a number of extra expenses that we had not anticipated. Please pray for a successful completion of the licensing process and that our educational activities at ETSM will proceed as planned.

Love is not a feeling

Peck notes in The Road Less Traveled that love is not a feeling. Instead it is an activity and an investment. He defines love as, "The will to extend one's self for the purpose of nurturing one's own or another's spiritual growth." Love is primarily actions towards nurturing the spiritual growth of another. Love cannot be sustained by mutual dependence, rather, love between two parties is made stronger when they are completely independent of one another.

Peck distinguishes between love and cathexis. Cathexis is what explains attractions to the opposite sex, the instinct for cuddling pets and pinching babies' cheeks. However, cathexis is not love. Ironically, true love does not begin in isolation, and a certain amount of cathexis is necessary to spark true love.

The work of love begins when the cathexis wears off. Love is not a feeling. It consists of what you do for another person. "Love is as love does." It is about giving the other person what they need to grow. It is about truly knowing and understanding them.

Peck is writing predominately about the love between humans. But the same principles are easily applied to one's understanding of and relationship with God. After the newness of our walk with Christ wears off, it is important to realize that God is concerned about our spiritual growth. He gives us what we need (and not what we don't need) so that we can grow -- something we also call discipleship.

Discipline - Life is difficult

Working through some old note, I came across the book The Road Less Traveled by Scott Peck. Peck, an American psychiatrist who was also a professing Christian. He talked of the importance of discipline that has the following "tools":

• Delaying gratification: Sacrificing present comfort for future gains.
• Acceptance of responsibility: Accepting responsibility for one's own decisions.
• Dedication to truth: Honesty, both in word and deed.
• Balancing: Handling conflicting requirements. We need to prioritize between different requirements -- bracketing.

Peck’s book begins with the profound truth that ‘Life is difficult!’. We must come to grips with the fact that life was never meant to be easy. We can either complain about them or solve them.

These tools are techniques of suffering, means by which we experience the pain of problems in such a way as to work through them and solve them successfully, learning and growing in the process. Most of us do not want to wrestle with our problems because of the pain involved. Yet, it is only in grappling with our problems that life has its meaning. In refusing to suffer the pain of sacrifice, we fail to truly grow. It is in giving that we gain more.

Healing Rain

For more than 20 years I've been a fan of Michael W. Smith's music. I never ceased to be amazed at his ability to write and produce great songs even when times change along with music styles.

Healing Rain is a reminder to all of us of the love of God that is available to all of us. Enjoy!

London in Eight Hours

We traveled from Germany to the United States with a 8-hour layover in London. So what do you do with three kids who have never been to the UK?

We took the tube from Heathrow to Picadilly Circus. There we were able to board an "open top" double decker bus and do a tour of London. The great thing is you can go on/off these buses as often as you like. (Same with the tube with the day pass.) Taking the "original tour", we got to see many of London's famous sights.

• Kensington Palace
• Hyde Park
• Ritz Hotel
• Royal Albert Hall
• Nelson's Column & Trafalgar Square
• British Airways London Eye
• Big Ben & Parliament
• Downing Street
• Horse Guards' Parade

But the time was too short to really take it all in. And with the London traffic, we had to cut out some of the other typical sites of London (St. Paul's Cathedral, Tower of London, Sherlock Holmes house). As it was, we had train delays getting back to the airport. We literally ran to the gate and were among the last ones to board.

Where's Waldo?

It's a bit late, but finally I have a picture of the participants from the Central and Eastern European Leadership Conference that was held in Kniebis, Germany this past June.

Countries represented were Germany, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Austria.