Vision Casting and John Naisbitt

One of joys of traveling is that it gives me time to read. Currently I'm working through John Nasibitt's latest, "Mind Set". About twenty years ago, I first came across his book Megatrends and a few years later his second book Megatrends 2000. The guy has simply been dead on in predicting what the future will look like...so I couldn't resist picking up his latest.

In Part One, Naisbitt begins by explaining 11 mindsets that have helped him understand the future. These are great tools not only for forecasting trends, but also for leaders who want to bring about change.

1. While many things change, most things remain constant

The news and media compete against each other for our attention by projecting the image that everything is changing. However, life goes on for the majority of people and things are pretty constant. Naisbitt counters by encouraging us to “distinguish between real and apparent change, basic shifts and fads, remembering that in the history of the world, most things remain constant."

2. The future is embedded in the present

Looking back it is easy to see how historical events shaped the future. The future is rooted in the present

3. Focus on the score of the game

Use sports as the model for determining the outcome of business and political decisions. When a game is over, the score is the objective fianl outcome and the winner is identified. In many areas of life, people will try to distort the outcome to make them look favorable. Again, filter out the rhetoric and determine the final score of the game.

4. Understand how powerful it is not to have to be right

This frees us to be open to new ideas and opportunities. If you have to be right, you put yourself in a hedged lane, but once you experience the power of not having to be right, you will feel like you are walking across open fields, the perspective wide and your feet free to take any turn.

5. See the future as a picture puzzle

Piecing together these mindset ideas will help you better identify future trends.

6. Don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t know you’re in it

If your great idea is so far out there that it is impossible for people to understand, they will not buy into your ideas. Keep your ideas close enough to the present that people can easily make the jump.

7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real

It is the leader's responsiblity to clearly communicate the benefits of change. Once the audience internalizes these concepts, they’ll drop their defenses and accept the new ideas.

8. Things that we expect to happen always happen more slowly

Our expectations always seem to outpace the implementation timeline of those great ideas. Naisbitt states: “almost all change is evolutionary, not revolutionary

9. You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities

Trying to solve the problem restricts one's ability to think in the bigger picture. Don't get stuck fixing the problems of the past instead of seeking the opportunities of tomorrow.

10. Don’t add unless you can subtract

Determine what is really important when new ideas arise. Always adding to the options will only cause the other options to lose is attention and quality. Failure to keep the proper balance will lead to under-performance in all areas.

11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology

New technologies should enable us. When something new is introduced, we should ask ourselves how things will improve or get worse. “What new opportunities does it present?